Swiss International Air Lines made aviation history in 2025 when they operated the world’s first commercial flight powered entirely by synthetic fuel made from atmospheric CO2 and renewable energy. This wasn’t a publicity stunt or a one-off experiment—it was the culmination of years of technological development in Direct Air Capture (DAC) and e-fuel production that could fundamentally change how we power aviation.
While the world races toward electrification for ground transport, aviation presents unique challenges. You can’t exactly install a battery in a Boeing 777 for a 15-hour flight across the Pacific. The energy density requirements, weight constraints, and infrastructure needs make electric aviation impractical for long-haul flights. This is where Direct Air Capture e-fuels enter the picture, offering a pathway to carbon-neutral aviation using existing aircraft and infrastructure.
What Are Direct Air Capture E-Fuels?
Direct Air Capture e-fuels represent a revolutionary approach to creating synthetic aviation fuel by literally pulling CO2 from the atmosphere and combining it with green hydrogen. The process creates jet fuel that is chemically identical to conventional petroleum-based fuel, meeting the same ASTM D7566 standards that ensure compatibility with existing aircraft engines and fuel systems.
The term “e-fuel” comes from the electricity-intensive process required to produce these synthetic hydrocarbons. Unlike biofuels, which rely on biomass and can compete with food production, e-fuels use only atmospheric CO2, water, and renewable electricity as inputs. This makes them theoretically scalable without land use conflicts, though the energy requirements present their own challenges.
The fundamental appeal lies in the concept of a closed carbon loop. The CO2 released when the fuel burns in an aircraft engine is the same CO2 that was captured from the atmosphere during production. When powered entirely by renewable electricity, this creates a carbon-neutral fuel cycle that could decarbonize aviation without requiring new aircraft or infrastructure investments.
The Technology Behind Air-to-Fuel Conversion
The process of converting atmospheric CO2 into jet fuel involves four main technological steps, each presenting unique engineering challenges and opportunities for optimization.
Direct Air Capture: Vacuum Cleaning the Atmosphere
The first step requires capturing CO2 directly from ambient air, where it exists at a concentration of just 420 parts per million. This is fundamentally different from capturing CO2 from industrial smokestacks, where concentrations can exceed 10%. The low concentration means processing enormous volumes of air to extract meaningful quantities of CO2.
Current DAC technologies use either solid sorbent materials or liquid solvents to selectively capture CO2 molecules. Climeworks’ Mammoth facility in Iceland, the world’s largest operational DAC plant, demonstrates the solid sorbent approach at industrial scale. The facility can capture 36,000 tons of CO2 annually using renewable geothermal energy, though early operational experience has shown the challenges of scaling these systems reliably.
The energy requirements for DAC remain substantial, typically consuming 1.5-2.5 MWh per ton of CO2 captured. However, companies like Verdox and Carbyon are developing next-generation systems that could reduce energy consumption significantly through electrochemical and fast-swing approaches.
Green Hydrogen Production: Splitting Water with Renewable Power
Simultaneously, renewable electricity powers electrolysis systems that split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen quality and production efficiency directly impact the economics of the entire e-fuel process. Advanced solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) from companies like Topsoe can achieve 20-30% better electrical efficiency compared to conventional electrolysis, reducing the overall energy penalty.
The timing and location of hydrogen production becomes critical for economic optimization. Co-locating electrolysis with renewable energy sources minimizes transmission losses and can take advantage of periods of excess renewable generation when electricity prices are lowest.
CO2 to Carbon Monoxide Conversion
The captured CO2 must then be converted to carbon monoxide (CO) through reverse water-gas shift (RWGS) reaction or electrochemical reduction. This step is energy-intensive but necessary to create reactive carbon species for fuel synthesis. Some companies like OXCCU are developing “one-step” processes that combine CO2 conversion with fuel synthesis, potentially improving overall efficiency and reducing capital costs.
Fuel Synthesis and Refining
The final step combines CO with hydrogen through Fischer-Tropsch synthesis or methanol-to-jet pathways to create synthetic hydrocarbons. These must then be refined to meet strict aviation fuel specifications. The resulting fuel, after appropriate blending, becomes ASTM D1655 certified Jet-A fuel that works in any commercial aircraft engine without modification.
Major Players and Current Projects
The e-fuel industry has moved beyond laboratory demonstrations to commercial-scale projects, with several companies now operating or constructing facilities capable of producing thousands to millions of liters annually.
Twelve: From Lab to Cockpit
Twelve, formerly Opus 12, has achieved a significant milestone with their E-Jet sustainable aviation fuel receiving full ASTM D7566 certification. Their fuel is already being used by United Airlines, Alaska Airlines, and the US Air Force, demonstrating real-world operational readiness. The company’s “industrial photosynthesis” approach produces SAF with up to 90% lifecycle carbon reduction compared to conventional jet fuel.
Infinium: Scaling to Industrial Levels
Infinium’s Project Roadrunner in Texas represents one of the most ambitious e-fuel scaling efforts currently under construction. Designed as the world’s largest e-fuels facility at startup, the project aims to produce millions of gallons annually of synthetic aviation fuel, diesel, and naphtha. The facility has secured backing from major infrastructure investor Brookfield, indicating institutional confidence in the technology’s commercial viability.
Synhelion: Solar-Powered Synthesis
Synhelion has taken a unique approach using concentrated solar power instead of electricity to drive thermochemical fuel synthesis. Their solar fuel powered the historic Swiss International Air Lines flight in 2025, proving that multiple technological pathways can achieve commercial e-fuel production. This approach could be particularly valuable in regions with abundant solar resources but limited renewable electricity infrastructure.
HIF Global: Pioneering in Patagonia
HIF Global’s Haru Oni facility in Chile combines abundant wind resources with e-fuel production to create synthetic gasoline and kerosene. The project has attracted investment from Porsche and Shell, with delivery agreements already in place. In 2025, HIF began integrating Direct Air Capture units to increase the atmospheric CO2 content in their feedstock, moving beyond industrial CO2 sources.
The DAC Infrastructure Race
On the CO2 supply side, Occidental’s STRATOS facility in Texas represents the next major scaling test for DAC technology. Designed to capture 500,000 tons of CO2 annually—more than 10 times larger than Climeworks’ Mammoth—STRATOS will determine whether DAC can achieve the industrial scale necessary for widespread e-fuel production.
Economics and Energy Requirements: The Reality Check
The economics of DAC e-fuels remain challenging, with current production costs significantly higher than conventional jet fuel. Understanding these economics is crucial for assessing the technology’s potential timeline to commercial viability.
Current Cost Structure
Direct Air Capture currently costs between $600-1,000 per ton of CO2, according to real operational data from existing facilities. Industry analysis from the International Energy Agency suggests that costs could fall to $230-630 per ton at scale, with some companies targeting $100-250 per ton through technological improvements and learning curve effects.
The complete e-fuel production process typically requires 20-30 kWh of electricity per liter of synthetic jet fuel produced. This enormous energy requirement means that e-fuel costs are directly tied to electricity prices. At current renewable electricity costs, this translates to synthetic fuel production costs of approximately €3 per liter, compared to €0.50 per liter for conventional jet fuel.
The Energy Competition Challenge
The scale of energy requirements raises fundamental questions about resource allocation. Every kilowatt-hour used for e-fuel production is electricity that could directly decarbonize other sectors or replace fossil fuel consumption elsewhere. Critics argue that the 5-6x energy penalty compared to direct electrification makes e-fuels an inefficient use of renewable energy resources.
However, proponents counter that aviation represents a hard-to-abate sector where few alternatives exist for long-haul flights. The question becomes whether society should prioritize energy efficiency or focus on decarbonizing sectors where no other practical solutions exist.
Policy Frameworks Driving Demand
Government policies are creating the economic conditions necessary for e-fuel commercialization by establishing guaranteed demand and providing production incentives.
European Union: ReFuelEU Aviation Mandate
The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation creates binding targets for sustainable aviation fuel use, starting with 2% SAF content in 2025 and reaching 35% by 2050. Critically, the regulation includes specific sub-targets for synthetic e-fuels: at least 1.2% e-kerosene by 2030, escalating to 35% by 2050.
These mandates create guaranteed demand regardless of cost, essentially forcing airlines to purchase e-fuels even at premium prices. This regulatory certainty has been crucial for securing project financing and long-term offtake agreements necessary for large-scale facility development.
United States: Tax Credit Strategy
The US approach focuses on production incentives rather than consumption mandates. The 45Q tax credit provides up to $180 per ton for captured CO2, while the new 45Z clean fuel production credit offers up to $1.75 per gallon for sustainable aviation fuel based on lifecycle carbon intensity.
These credits can substantially improve project economics. For a facility producing SAF with 90% carbon reduction compared to conventional fuel, the combined credits could reduce production costs by $2-3 per gallon, potentially making e-fuels cost-competitive with petroleum-based alternatives.
Environmental Impact and Limitations
While e-fuels offer a pathway to carbon-neutral aviation, their environmental benefits depend entirely on the electricity sources used in production and come with important limitations.
The Renewable Electricity Prerequisite
E-fuels are only as clean as the electricity grid powering their production. Facilities using grid electricity that includes fossil fuel sources may produce synthetic fuel with higher lifecycle carbon emissions than conventional jet fuel. This creates a chicken-and-egg problem: e-fuel production requires massive renewable electricity expansion, but that same electricity could achieve greater carbon reductions through direct use elsewhere.
The integration with renewable energy systems offers some advantages. E-fuel production can provide grid stability services by consuming excess renewable generation during periods of high wind or solar output, potentially improving the economics of renewable energy deployment overall.
Non-CO2 Climate Impacts
E-fuels address aviation’s CO2 emissions but do not solve other climate impacts from flying. High-altitude nitrogen oxide emissions and contrail formation continue to contribute to aviation’s climate impact even with synthetic fuels. Research from the Alternative Fuels Data Center indicates that these non-CO2 effects could be as significant as CO2 for aviation’s total climate impact.
Some studies suggest that synthetic fuels may produce fewer particulate emissions than conventional jet fuel, potentially reducing contrail formation, but this research remains preliminary and contested.
The Scaling Challenge: From Pilots to Megatons
The path from today’s demonstration projects to the scale required for meaningful aviation decarbonization presents unprecedented industrial challenges. Global aviation currently consumes approximately 300 million tons of jet fuel annually. Meeting even the EU’s 2030 target of 1.2% e-kerosene would require roughly 3.6 million tons of synthetic fuel production.
Infrastructure Requirements
Scaling e-fuel production to meaningful levels requires coordinated development of DAC facilities, renewable electricity generation, electrolysis capacity, and fuel synthesis plants. The renewable energy requirements are staggering: producing just 10% of global aviation fuel synthetically would require approximately 1,500 TWh of additional renewable electricity annually—roughly equivalent to the entire current global wind power generation.
This scale of development must occur alongside the broader energy transition, potentially creating competition for renewable energy resources, skilled labor, and critical materials needed for electrolysis and renewable energy equipment.
Learning Curve and Cost Reduction
Historical precedents from solar photovoltaics and wind power suggest that costs could decline substantially as production scales. However, e-fuels face different constraints than renewable energy technologies. While solar panels and wind turbines benefit from manufacturing scale effects, e-fuel facilities are complex chemical plants with significant site-specific requirements.
The industry’s ability to achieve cost reductions will likely depend on technological breakthroughs in DAC efficiency, electrolysis performance, and fuel synthesis optimization rather than simple manufacturing scale effects.
Global Context: Cities and Regions Leading the Transition
The development of e-fuel infrastructure is occurring within broader urban and regional decarbonization strategies. Copenhagen’s approach to achieving carbon neutrality by 2025 demonstrates how cities are integrating multiple clean energy technologies, including renewable electricity systems that could eventually support e-fuel production.
Similarly, innovations in osmotic power and marine renewable energy represent additional renewable electricity sources that could contribute to the massive clean energy requirements for synthetic fuel production.
The geographic distribution of e-fuel facilities will likely favor regions with abundant renewable energy resources and supportive policy frameworks. Chile’s Atacama Desert, Iceland’s geothermal resources, and offshore wind resources in the North Sea represent prime locations for large-scale e-fuel production.
Timeline and Commercial Outlook: 2025-2035
The next decade will determine whether DAC e-fuels become a mainstream aviation solution or remain a niche technology for premium applications.
Near-term Developments (2025-2027)
The operational performance of facilities like Occidental’s STRATOS and the scaling success of companies like Infinium and Twelve will provide crucial data on technical feasibility and cost reduction potential. Policy implementation of the EU’s ReFuelEU mandates and US tax credit programs will create the first significant commercial demand for e-fuels.
Early adopters among airlines are likely to focus on premium routes or corporate sustainability programs where customers may accept higher ticket prices for carbon-neutral flying.
Medium-term Scaling (2027-2030)
Meeting the EU’s 2030 target of 1.2% e-kerosene will require completing dozens of commercial-scale facilities across Europe and globally. This period will test the industry’s ability to scale manufacturing, secure financing, and integrate with renewable energy development.
Technological improvements in DAC efficiency and fuel synthesis could begin to show meaningful cost reductions, though synthetic fuels will likely remain significantly more expensive than conventional alternatives without policy support.
Long-term Integration (2030-2035)
The industry projects that cost parity with conventional jet fuel could be achieved by 2030-2035, though this depends on continued technology improvement, cheap renewable electricity access, and sustained policy support. Large-scale deployment could begin to address aviation’s climate impact meaningfully if production scales to millions of tons annually.
However, achieving this scale would require renewable electricity deployment far beyond current global installation rates, raising questions about feasibility and opportunity costs compared to other decarbonization strategies.
Conclusion: Betting on Air
Direct Air Capture e-fuels represent one of the few pathways available for decarbonizing long-haul aviation with existing aircraft technology. The fundamental chemistry works, companies are building commercial facilities, and policies are creating guaranteed demand. Swiss Air’s historic flight powered by synthetic fuel proves the technology can work in practice.
Yet enormous challenges remain. Current costs are 5-6 times higher than conventional fuel, energy requirements are massive, and scaling to meaningful impact would require unprecedented renewable energy deployment. The technology may prove most valuable for specific applications—premium routes, corporate sustainability programs, or regions with abundant renewable resources—rather than wholesale replacement of conventional aviation fuel.
The next five years will be critical. If facilities like STRATOS operate successfully, costs decline as projected, and renewable energy continues its rapid expansion, DAC e-fuels could become a cornerstone of aviation decarbonization. If technical challenges prove intractable or energy costs remain prohibitive, the technology may remain limited to niche applications.
The bet on turning air into jet fuel ultimately represents a broader wager on humanity’s ability to engineer solutions to climate change through advanced technology and massive industrial deployment. Whether that bet pays off will depend on factors ranging from electrolyzer efficiency improvements to geopolitical support for renewable energy development.
For aviation, the alternative may be accepting that flying becomes significantly more expensive and less accessible as carbon costs are internalized. In that context, even imperfect solutions like DAC e-fuels may prove essential for maintaining global connectivity while addressing climate change.
The sky may literally be the limit—if we can figure out how to power aircraft with the air that surrounds us.
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